guide
How to Decide Whether to Bid
6 min readBy Helen MarshReviewed by David OkonjoPublished 2026-03-21Last reviewed 2026-06-18
In short
Decide whether to bid by scoring four things before writing anything: requirement fit, evidence you can prove, realistic win probability against likely competitors, and the internal cost of pursuing the opportunity.
Score the opportunity, don't argue about it
Bid/no-bid decisions made in conversation default to optimism. A short scored matrix, completed by the people who would deliver the work, removes most of that bias.
- Requirement fit: can you meet every mandatory criterion today?
- Evidence: do you have contracts of comparable size and sector to cite?
- Competition: how many credible bidders, and is there an incumbent?
- Commercials: does the margin survive the contract terms and KPIs?
- Capacity: who writes it, and what else are they meant to deliver that month?
Set a threshold and hold to it
Teams that win consistently bid less often. Set a minimum score below which you decline, record the reason, and revisit declined opportunities quarterly to see whether the gap is worth closing.
Frequently asked questions
What win rate should we expect?
A disciplined SME bidding selectively in a familiar sector typically wins 25-40% of submissions. Below 15% usually signals a qualification problem, not a writing problem.
Sources